Yes, I'm using the flywheel marks. Harbor Freight doesn't ship here, so that's out. I'll have a troll around the tool shops here to see if I can find a dial indicator. I'll have plenty of time to search, since I'll probably end up ordering the automatic tensioner from DC Auto (these aren't something that should go bad, right?).
My impression is that whoever last changed the timing belt wasn't very careful, just judging on how far off the balance shafts were. Definitely not a Porsche trained mechanic! It wouldn't surprise me at all if the timing belt was off by a tooth.
I didn't really get enough seat time in the car to be able to judge if there were a lot of vibrations or not.. I'll set them as the manual shows and go from there.