[Cloud9...68]

Beautiful - very Aston Martin-like.  

 

I've been wondering about a hypothetical.  What if lithium ion batteries were around near the turn of the 19th to the 20th century.  Would the internal combustion engine even have gone into widespread production?  When I think about it objectively, other than making some cool sounds (in some cases, anyway), and offering the convenience of fast fill-ups, I can't think of too many advantages of ICE's over electric propulsion.  

 

But on the other hand, the cost of LI batteries must still be astronomical, because every new electric car, such as the one DS links above, is beyond the means of the average consumer.  Yes, Tesla is finally promising the $35K Model 3, but it comes at the cost of some serious, and possibly unsustainable cost-cutting.  Their interiors are already so low-rent, that it's obvious Tesla is trying desperately to offset the cost of the batteries by cutting as many corners as it can in other areas.  Similarly, the new Jag and the Audi eTron are prohibitively expensive for most folks, not to mention the eventual Porsche Taycan.  And I just heard the Tesla Model Y is going to be more expensive than the Model 3.  I get that the operating costs of EVs are significantly less than ICEs, but the sticker shock is going to present some serious headwinds to the widespread adoption of EVs.  

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[flash]

this is the real obstacle.  people have to think long term.  you have to think in terms of net cost, not just purchase outlay.  you have to factor in the lower repair costs, lower operational costs, and the fact that fuel is essentially free, as well as the time you gain back, and therefore you spend a lot less on the car over its life.

 

where this is really like to take off is in the lease market.

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[Cloud9...68]

Agreed, but most people don't think very long term.  And even if they did, while the cost of operating an electric car is significantly less than that of a gas powered car, with today's low gas prices, it takes several years to recoup the much higher up front cost.  For example, a Tesla Model 3 is rated at a combined 126 mpge, which of course is very good.  But many cars are available that get 26 mpg (a nice round 100 mpge less than the Tesla) nowadays  For someone who drives 12,000 miles a year, that's a savings of the equivalent of 366 gallons of gas.  At $2.50/gallon, that only saves $915 per year.  And modern cars require so little maintenance that that's barely even a factor.  The other factors (trips to the gas station vs. remembering to charge it pretty every time you're not driving) are a wash.  Again, I'm by no means anti-electric car, I'm just saying that until they come way down in price, they're going to be a tough sell to the general public.

 

To follow up on my what-if-lithium-ion-batteries-were-available-in-1900 hypothetical, I have another one.  What if there were a breakthrough in biofuel production (e.g. the commercialization of cellulosic biofuel), allowing people to continue driving liquid-fueled ICE-powered cars, but in a carbon-neutral fashion?  Would EV's stand a chance?

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[flash]

this is one of the reasons they are so popular in california.  gas is nearly $4 a gallon there (i paid over $3.50 when i was there 2 weeks ago)

 

as for maintenance, gas cars still need oil changes, belt jobs, and all that.  they also go through brakes MUCH faster, as electric cars have the charging feature on throttle lift-off (to be fair, so do many of the new hybrid cars)

 

not sure what would have happened if biofuel had become a thing.  it's possible, but we would still be dealing with a lot of issues that come with any liquid fuel.  distribution is a key factor.  with electricity, there is no physical transportation, no storage, no traffic, etc.

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[Cloud9...68]

Yep - economics drives everything.  If gas were $4-5/gallon or more, I'm sure more people would switch to electric cars.  But at the same time, ICE's are getting more efficient every year.  In particular, the next generation of Mazda's engines are expected to break the 40-mpg-in-the-real-world barrier.  But on the third hand, conventional cars are also rapidly getting more expensive, which is why the average length of ownership is now something like 11 years.  It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

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[Waylander]

My Audi A4 (2.0 Tdi Quattro 177Bhp) does a real world 45-50 Mpg all the time, the best i have ever got out of it was on a long drive by UK standards of about 400miles, the computer and me filling it to the lid before I started and when I got home was 61 Mpg, but i know our gallons are a bit bigger,

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[ds968]

Long term thinking philosophy is lame; you have to be in your 30s and hope to live another 40 years before you can see any real financial benefits / ROI  from the purchase of an electric car or solar panels on your house...live in the moment I say, and enjoy what you can, for as long as you can, and stop worrying about what long term will bring you...  you may get hit by a bus before that $ 60 / month electric bill savings catches up with your $ 25,000 investment in solar energy :-) :-)  

 

 

p.s.  note, I'm talking only about this subject when I say long term planning is lame, and not about things like retirement funding, etc..   although even there doing something in moderation is the reasonable approach.. as opposed to sacrificing all the enjoyable and hedonistic things in life in order to save every penny for your golden age, and before you can use it you get hit by that bus, or the market  crashes one day before you want to take your money out, or you have a stoke / heart attack, etc...    just sayin'           

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[Cloud9...68]

"In the long run, we're all dead."

 

- John Maynard Keynes

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[Kim]

I think that the underlying problem rests with the concept that "you" or "I", as an individual, impact nearly nothing. 

 

Now imagine if today, some people tried to make the change and continued with it.  Tomorrow, a few more do the same,  Next week, next month, next year, next decade, we're all still in.  Numbers are growing. Now we are like the Borg, a collective that makes a difference. Plus, as more people jump in, it becomes easier to do the right thing.  More charging stations appear. Solar panel costs go down. Eventually, it is the norm and the older ways are outliers. 

 

Having said that, I have three vehicles, 2 Cayennes (mine) and a truck (the wife's). The diesel Cayenne now has 396,000 km and soon I fear will need to be replaced. Unlike 968s, they don't last forever! I REALLY want an EV but haven't anywhere to charge it during the day (my typical day is about 350 km and I wouldn't be able to charge it only at night). Can't get the office landlord to consider installing a charge station.

 

I just fear that before we reach the point where economics dictate that we will go electric we will pass the point where it matters anymore.

 

Some thoughts from Altruistic Kim, here in Bugtussle.

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[flash]

ds968 - you are working with very old data.  on average, the new solar panels pay out in between 6 to 8 years.  i also don't know where you get the $60 figure.  it's a lot higher than that.   if you add a battery pack, you can reduce your bill by 100%.  panels also increase the value of your house by an average of $12k, so if you sell it, they pay for themselves, and you end up actually making money on them.

 

back to the tesla roadster.

 

i am really getting close to putting down a deposit.  the problem i am having with the car is the roof.  i love that it is a targa, but it looks like it has to be removed as opposed to retracting, which is a pain, and takes up boot space.

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[Cloud9...68]

 

back to the tesla roadster.

 

i am really getting close to putting down a deposit.  the problem i am having with the car is the roof.  i love that it is a targa, but it looks like it has to be removed as opposed to retracting, which is a pain, and takes up boot space.

Cool!  Anxious to see how this turns out.  That is truly a beautiful car.

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[flash]

i'll let you know november 4 2020

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[ds968]

The $ 60 figure is the national average . My gas & electric bill is about $ 250 / mo. A lot more in the summer because I have the AC blasting 24/7 , but since I like cold , I hardly use heat in the winter ( well, whatever can pass for " winter " in California anyway , lol )

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[flash]

yeah - that's very old info

 

in an "apples to apples" comparison, the average electric bill in the US is $109.06, ranging from 79 at the lowest to 146 at the highest.  please note that the usage is very low in all of those in the study.  we used a LOT more electricity than that before we moved.

 

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/econ.../36600427/

 

you would likely save an average of about $200 per month.  that would make a solar system on your house break even at 8 years.  likely less if you went with a battery pack, so you could run the AC for free at night.

 

back on topic

 

has anybody seen the boot space in the car?

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[ds968]

Eight years is an eternity ! Who the hell has time for that in a world driven by instant gratification ?! And have you factored in the annual maintenance costs of solar panels upkeep as they age ? I have not looked up what those costs may be because I don't care, but I would suspect it may kill much if not all of the savings you derive from the disappearing electric bill . I heard you can expect to pay someone about $ 2,000 to get on your roof and clean or treat your panels. And that may need to be done every year. This info may be inaccurate because as I said it's merely hearsay from one person at work who has solar panels on his house , but thought I'd mention it nonetheless .


But yes, back to Telsla - check this out : https://news.yahoo.com/video-tesla-drive...05056.html

In fairness Tesla is just coincidental to the story, it's much more about self-driving cars technology . Funny. Scary as hell, but still a funny story . And yes I recognize that awake drivers who are drunk, or texting , talking, eating , or otherwise distracted present a far greater danger on the road, but this is yet just another added facet of risk ..

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[Ryan]

"Boot space" who cares.....just don't wear boots.

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[flash]

lol - how long have you been in your house?  how much have you spent on electricity?

 

boot space - very important.  i actually took luggage to the dealership when i was looking at the targa.  any such car would be for weekend fun trips.  gotta take luggage.

 

p.s. - i get some of my best naps behind the wheel

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[ds968]

Ok, so the fact that I'm a Tesla ( or any other 100 % electric car ) basher has been established ;-) . But I'm often conveying the sentiments of so many of my coworkers who own Teslas . How many do I know and talk to about their cars, you ask ? Fourteen with whom I interact weekly , a few of which I see daily . This is a small fraction of the Tesla owners in our office ; our building has about 600 employees, and there are over 75 Teslas in our parking lot . Only eight charging stations, BTW. A lot of unhappy campers :-( . Incidentally I'd say 90 % of the Teslas are Model S, a handful of Model 3 now, and I've only seen two SUVs, I think .. Of the co-workers whom I know personally, with one single exception, all the others are going back to either fuel cars, or, hybrids for their next lease or purchase . The main reason is is the eventual loss of their carpool lane privileges, second reason is the insane amount of time needed to charge the car ( even with what's called the rapid-charge station .. yeah, maybe rapid if you're a banana slug ) and third is the battery drain from the slightest use of the accelerator , heating , or AC in the car . BTW , for those that don't know , electric cars AC is pathetic, you can barely get mildly cooler than room temp air in your cabin and it is a huge draw on your battery in no time . That's a non-starter for me , I need freezing temps in my car at all times. They do admit that it's a great car for commuting less than half hr each way and if you can get a spot at the charging station , that's a nice bonus. But heavens forbid you should try to take the car on a longer trip where it may have to climb any significant incline grades, or pass a couple of trucks on the way up hill .. while you have the AC on, lol. Your otherwise 300 mile battery range , will turn into a 25 mile range before you have to charge it ;-) :-) . However, as noted here technology is progressing by leaps and bounds, so mileage range will get bigger , charging will be a lot faster, more infrastructure for servicing the cars will be built ...all of that ...eventually ! But not for a long time, IMO.

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[Cloud9...68]

Interesting.  There's a lot of conflicting information on the loyalty of EV drivers.  Tesla's as the highest rated cars by Consumer Reports in terms of owner satisfaction, but I've read numerous accounts that say that what EV owners say and what they actually do in their follow-up purchases are often very different things.  Hard to say.

 

The big risk to rapid adoption of EV's, in my opinion, is simply that they're so danged expensive.  In the auto section of today's paper, they tested the new version of the Mazda 3, and gave it glowing reviews for it's upscale feel and engaging driving experience.  Its list price?  $21K.  Later on in the section, they talked about several of the available EV's.  The cheapest is the Nissan Leaf, with a list price of just under $30K, for a car that isn't nearly as nice as the Mazda.  Given the Mazda's stellar gas mileage, it would take many years to recoup the savings in gas from purchasing a Leaf, a car which is basically an appliance, compared to the sporty and well-appointed Mazda.  And the other electrics, the new Audi e-Tron, and the Jag i-Pace, are just ridiculous, at north of $70K.  I have nothing against electric cars, but they won't take over while only 2-percenters can afford to buy them.

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[Rap]

Flash in the interest of easyness I thought I’d let you know your old dear friend Raj is reporting on Rennlist that as condition of a purchase of one of your super chargers that you included a gag order. Did I miss this?

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