my experience is that the gauge may not be too accurate/stable, but the red light is very accurate. i believe that the light has it's own contact inside the sender. so it should be accurate.
i've been taking the car to the 'red light' zone and then drive about 40 miles. i've never had a hard time getting to 400 miles on a tank, but from there, it's guesswork. i usually have 19-19.5 gallons to fill up at that point. i know (don't ask!) that the car holds exactly 20.5 gallons when empty, so 1 gallon to spare is a nice cushion.
if you keep track of your mileage and figure a 20.5 gallon tank, you should have a good idea of your range. i'm sure at this point with all our mods/wear and tear that we're all getting different mileage.