[quote name='jfrahm' post='56784' date='Jul 27 2008, 01:07 PM']While I'm not convinced the CO2 has as much to do with climate change as some have suggested... Forest fires are actually carbon neutral. The CO2 would be released eventually when the tree dies and decays. Unless the trees are made into durable goods or long-lasting structures most of that carbon is going to get out somehow.
The burning of coal and oil takes impounded hydrocarbons from deep beneath the earth and puts them into play. If we left them be that carbon would probably not be a factor in any meaningful way.
That being said, I feel that the concern about humans changing the climate is reasonable but overreacting to what might not be a near-term problem will cause more harm than good. I feel a slow, natural transition to cleaner, more efficient, renewable energy sources is best and despite what anyone says that is what's probably going to happen.
I think we need to do the smart things. Use less, waste less. Even if we could continue to live the way we do now for 100 years without harm to the planet or running out of oil, that doesn't mean it's not smarter to conserve, improve and save. It's cheaper in the long run if nothing else.
Technology will help us out, and already has. In the not too distant future (5 years?) there will not be many good reasons not to use photovoltaic solar arrays on our roofs. A plug-in electric car for local commuting will be sustainable and affordable. Those things are just beginning to be smart investments now, to some extent solar energy is still sort of a hobby and running an electric car definitely is. I'm just starting to see investment in solar arrays by homeowners look like a smart choice but it does require something like 15 years to run in the black. If I had the money I'd probably buy financial stocks instead and get the solar array in 5-7 years when the break-even is more like 5 years off.
In 30 years I think gasoline-powered cars and trucks will be rather quaint. Trying to turn that 30 years into 15 would probably be an economic disaster. We need time for the alternatives to be available and viable, and for the long-term benefits to be appealing to people who have to choose what technologies to invest in. The market reacted to things like changing television technology, high efficiency appliances, CF light bulbs etc. People had the option to pay more for a smarter long-term choice, and many did. Eventually the better choice nearly became the only choice, and the price came down and made it a no-brainer. I think energy and transportation will follow a similar track.
Just my opinion.
-Joel.[/quote]
Joel,
Good point about forest fires being carbon neutral in the long run. Although, I would think the massive fires we've seen annually over the last decade or so must be speeding up the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
You make a lot of very good points throughout your post. I agree that we need to take measured steps to eventually move toward alternative fuels, rather than trying to move radically against market forces to try to rush alternatives onto the market while petroleum based fuels are still available and relatively affordable. I'm not sure I agree that in 30 years, gas-fueled vehicles will appear quaint, because of the massive thermodynamic advantage gasoline holds over any of the alternatives, nor do I expect to see a whole lot of solar panels on car roofs, hoods, and trunks, but who knows?
What I think will happen, and I think it's already started, is that much like in the 70s, people, at least in the developed countries, will get serious about conserving, and will begin replacing their gas guzzlers (though who is going to buy them...?) with far more fuel-efficient vehicles over the next 5-10 years. This should help keep a lid on oil prices, with an opposing upward force being exerted by rising demand in the developing countries. So, I see oil prices range-bound between, who knows, maybe $80-150/barrel, depending on many factors. While this is pricey by historical standards, I'm afraid it isn't high enough for alternatives to become viable for a very long time.
But in the meantime, there should be some very intersting vehicles, with all sorts of flavors of hybrids, lighter weight materials gaining greater favor, continued development of gas-saving technologies like cylinder deactivation, direct injection, cam-less valvetrains, and maybe even ethanol injection. Should be an exciting time to be a car junkie.
