[tamathumper]

The U.S. isn't even close to being worst case... I just traveled 300km from Shanghai to Nanjing, much of the trip through countryside, and at no time could I see more than a mile due to choking smog. I ate dinner on the 58th floor last night and couldn't see much more than two miles in any direction, other than the fires and flares in the distance from the refineries and factories outside the city. My compatriots tell me Beijing is much worse. Mexico City, Navi Mumbai, Pune, Rio Claro,... all far worse than any city in the U.S.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[flash]

lol - the human body is pretty simple too. it's not nearly as complicated as some might think. it's basic plumbing, electrical circuits, structure, and connectors. doctors would love you to think that it's complicated. that way they can charge you a lot of money. but in reality it's no more complicated than a car, and the average doctor is little more than a mechanic.



as for the climate issue, the analogy is flawed in that a slice of chocolate cake every day isn't even 1/10 of the proportionate damage being done. now, if you eat 10 slices of cake each day, you would have a decent analogy, and it would be pretty easy to tell what would happen. even so, you can bet that even 1 slice per day is going to do you harm. no chance it won't. even the most basic common sense will tell you that.



we aren't going to save ourselves. we may stave things off a few generations though, if we act now, giving those after us time to find a new planet to screw up.



we (the united states) dump into the atmosphere, 25.5 billion tons of climate change pollution each year. the entire atmosphere only weighs 5.5 quadrillion tons. life requires a very delicate balance of atmospheric composition and temperature. upset that the least bit, and things die. it's happening now. upset it farther, and everything dies. it's happened before. it's happening again, only this time much more quickly. what used to take tens of thousands of years, now happens in a century.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[mbardeen]

A) While the human body is "simple" in concept, in practice it is incredibly complex. Witness the growing realization that symbiotic bacterial colonies are necessary for much of a person's health.



<img src="/forum/images/smilies/968/cool.png" class="smilie" alt="" /> The earth, as a system, is far more complex than a human body.



C) Complex systems that we see are selected for on the basis of their stability -- they have to adapt to changing external and internal condition. If they don't adapt, they break. When they break, the component parts reorganize into a different system. This is evolution at its most general.



D) Many, if not all, complex systems have tipping points or critical transitions, as Flash has pointed out. The Earth is currently in a relatively stable state, but indications are that it is nearing one of these critical transitions. What the system will look like after the transition is anyone's guess.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[Cloud9...68]

OK, let's say for the sake of argument that we are in a worst case scenario. What do we do about it, given that there's zero chance we can get the entire world to agree to stop burning fossil fuels quickly enough to stop the calamity from happening?



Our only option given this scenario, it seems to me, is a geoenigeering-based one. The same minds that cured polio, created the general theory of relativity, doubled the human life expectancy over the course of a couple of generations, put a craft on Mars, harnessed the power of the atom, have put the computing power of previous-generation supercomputers into the palm of our hands, etc., will figure out a way to fix this. It will require innovative, out-of-the-box thinking, and it may involve something that can't even be imagined at the moment, but I have no doubt whatsoever that a solution will be found.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[ds968]

[quote name='Cloud9...68' timestamp='1369325296' post='143013']

but I have no doubt whatsoever that a solution will be found.

[/quote]



+ 1. necessity is the mother of invention, and yes all the technology is there.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[Cloud9...68]

I just feel that sitting idly by and letting a problem wipe out the human race is completely inconsistent with the history of humanity. It may take awhile for us to develop the sense of urgency that may ultimately be required, but the measures to fix the problem will happen if and when it becomes necessary.



It's kind of like if we discovered an asteroid that may strike the earth some number of years into the future. We probably wouldn't do a whole lot about it until a strike looked inevitable, but once it did, we'd marshall all resources required to prevent the disaster.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[flash]

it's completely like the human race to sit and ignore a problem. unless it immediately messes with them, they will do nothing, and even then, they will only do what they absolutely have to, no more. we only pay attention to what is in our own back yard. it doesn't matter how big the problem is. when we do have to do something, it's only the bare minimum, and it has never been enough.



just look at history.



slavery - famine - cancer - terrorism - human rights - crime - the list is endless



these are arguably far less significant problems than global disaster, yet we can't even manage to deal with these adequately.



i shudder to think how badly we will trip over ourselves and bungle something huge.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[Cloud9...68]

Wow. We have a very different view of humanity, but that's common - people are all over the spectrum on this. Maybe I watch too much History Channel, or maybe it's because I've spent my career working with brilliant people, but I never cease to marvel at the magnificence of the human species. If and when it becomes necessary to solve the threat to the climate, we'll knock it out of the park. Guaranteed.



And I've spent way too much time rebuilding my 968 only to die of climate change before I get the opportunity to enjoy it... <img src="/forum/images/smilies/968/cool.png" class="smilie" alt="" />

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[ds968]

Nonsense, NOTHING will happen to tne survival of tne human race..repeat, NOTHING..short of an alien ( and I don't mean emigrants..) invasion. We'll adapt just fine in face of most adversities..

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[Cloud9...68]

[quote name='ds968' timestamp='1369351206' post='143027']

Nonsense, NOTHING will happen to tne survival of tne human race..repeat, NOTHING..short of an alien ( and I don't mean emigrants..) invasion. We'll adapt just fine in face of most adversities..

[/quote]

I completely agree, but it's very interesting how differently people feel on this topic. One person could cite dozens of examples of how humans are barely above pond scum and deserve to be eradicated (and will be soon) from this planet like the vermin we are, while others can list an equal number of examples of the amazing traits we possess and equally mind-bogglingy incredible things we've accomplished in our relatively short tenure on this planet. It all comes down to ones life experiences, I suppose.



The only thing more amazing than the degree to which people disagree on the subject of humanity's worth and our expected longevity is the directions any thread dealing with gas prices will veer... <img src="/forum/images/smilies/968/rolleyes.gif" class="smilie" alt="" />

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[tamathumper]

Totally with you, humanity will not come to an end by its own hand, and there is zero chance we'll "destroy" the planet. We might alter the climate temporarily, and we might even suffer a setback (millions or billions of deaths), but we're overdue for something like that anyway.



More than once the planet has been a complete ball of ice, and more than once the oceans have had a surface temperature over 115 degrees. We're an inconsequential blip.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[flash]

you guys are delirious. pull your head out of the sand. we will not survive an ice age, and we are headed for one. the planet will survive and heal itself. we just won't be around to see it.



we have failed to beat any serious challenge. sure, we come up with cool gadgets and such, and find cures to some diseases (only to create more from screwing up our immune systems), but we have never succeeded in conquering any serious challenge (see the ones listed above). we only manage to come up with solutions to things when it means somebody gets paid. funding is never provided for anything serious. that's why we are where we are.



as for beating climate change, we can't even manage to build a house that can survive a tornado. how the heck do you expect to beat endless superstorms, let alone change the weather?

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[Tom030]

"we can't even manage to build a house that can survive a tornado ..."..





The houses may not have survived but most of the inhabitants did. Humans have an amazing ability to adapt and endure. We have survived ice ages in the past with a lot less technology than we have now.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[ds968]

We can most certainly build houses to survive tornados or super-storms , or an ice age, or ocean temps and levels rising, or most of whatever else nature throws at us ( ok, perhaps not immense meteors ) but, ironically , flash also mentioned something sadly true : we don't because there's no money to be made.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[flash]

a smattering of humans survived the ice age. that's what you can expect again. do you call that "success"?



within 80 years new york will be under water. what do you think that will do to the economy? we are already seeing insurance companies and local governments going bankrupt due to the natural disasters that have become more frequent and more severe. there will be a point not too far off where we just can't fix things afterward.



endless storms will mean the inability to grow crops and feed the world. oh well, there's always soilent green.



we need to end the use of fossil fuels NOW if we stand any chance of maintaining anything that resembles our society. otherwise, we can expect wars over food and other resources in the not too distant future. we just won't be able to support the number of people on the planet.



but, maybe that's all a good thing. the planet could do with a huge reduction in human population. we should have implemented world wide birth rate controls a long time ago. maybe this is the check and balance mechanism.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[tamathumper]

Actually, a "smattering" is success. Another ice age (or asteroid, or solar prominence) will occur, with or without human intervention. Accepting the certainty of that and humanity's insignificance allows one to turn to the challenge of maintaining some semblance of our knowledge base through the calamity so humanity doesn't have to restart from zero.



Some people believe a cataclysm already occurred at least once in recent history (~10,000 years ago) and that mythology was the means to preserve a basic knowledge of things like our position in the solar system and the precession of the equinoxes (e.g. "Hamlet's Mill" in mythological terms). One fun read, whether you choose to believe the conclusions in it or not, is "Cataclysm".



Cities have been sinking beneath the sea since there have been cities. Ocean levels have varied by hundreds of meters, and will continue to do so. Shame on us for continuing to build at the water's edge. Having been stuck in traffic in New York city last night for several hours, I think it could probably use a good rinse.



... and all of this is of course directly related to the price of gas at the pump. <img src="/forum/images/smilies/968/wink.png" class="smilie" alt="" />

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[flash]

lol - actually, it is directly related. we would not be in this mess but for oil, at least not at this time. it would have been tens of thousands of years off. we let oil companies run rampant and make as much money as they can without any controls. that is a mistake, and one that will cost a lot more than if we had found another way.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[ds968]

back to tornadoes..which are related to climate which is related to gas..so thus, right on the topic of this thread <img src="/forum/images/smilies/968/tongue.png" class="smilie" alt="" /> if i hear one more imbecile telling reporters that while the death of so many children from the tornado is a tragedy, but they have "faith" because this is all part of "god's master plan" ( as is global warming, no doubt.. <img src="/forum/images/smilies/968/dry.png" class="smilie" alt="" /> ) I can only hope that moron gets run over by a car or one being spun around by the next torado lands on him, so it can expedite his meeting with his imaginary friend, where bliss awaits him, as soon as possible <img src="/forum/images/smilies/968/angry.png" class="smilie" alt="" />

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[Cloud9...68]

So back to my question a few posts ago, since there is zero chance that we'll stop using fossil fuels "in time" to stop the coming calamity, and humans are clearly too stupid and selfish to find another solution, I guess we're goners.



Hogwash.



We survived the black plague, avoided nuclear annihilation, and mass death from skin cancer caused by the ozone hole (anybody remember that one?). We'll engineer our way out of any self-induced climate problem, guaranteed.



Speaking about the ozone hole, this addresses what I was talking about regarding the uncertainty in trying to make reliable, time-based predictions in a system with a large number of variables. People were justifiably very concerned about the ozone hole, because the reaction between perfluorocarbons and ozone (O3) is not only non-terminating, it's self-perpetuating (the products of the reaction act as reactants, causing a theoretical unending consumption of ozone, as long as there is any around). So, the fear was that even completely stopping the use of PFC's wouldn't save us. But what has actually happened? In recent years, the ozone hole has actually been shrinking (but you'll never see that in our biased media that salivates over any story that might have the slightest hint of a big bad corporation harming some insect in some backwater swamp), Why? Nobody knows for sure. Obviously, there are factors in the predictions that weren't fully comprehended.



And that's a situation dealing with just one very simple chemical reaction. If the models can't get that one right, how can they possibly predict the impact of one factor (the atmospheric concentration of CO2, a relatively weak infrared absorber, by the way) out of the dozens, if not hundreds, that impact the temperature on the surface of the earth? I'm not saying it's good that we're dumped so much CO2 into the atmosphere - clearly that is going to have some impact. I'm just saying that making the leap the this one factor will ultimately lead directly to the destruction of all life on the planet, is a gross oversimplification, in that it ignores things like compensating effects within the system, and human ingenuity's limitless potential.



But we could go back and forth endlessly on this - I guess time will tell who's right. I just hope I'm around long enough to find out.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.

[flash]

we have not avoided nuclear annihilation. we merely got past one incident. frankly, it goes to profit again. there was no profit in it. we are facing another threat. until we ban all nuclear weapons, including our own, this threat will live, and any nutball dictator puts us at risk.



you cannot guarantee that we will do anything about climate change. there is absolutely no evidence to support any idea that we can do anything about climate change on a global scale. we don't have the technology, the resources, or even the desire to fix the problem. as long as we burn oil, there will be no profit in fixing the problem, nothing will be done, and the problem gets more and more insurmountable.



as for the ozone layer, all of the models i saw showed that it could be repaired, and in fact predicted it's repair by the end of this century. this is further proof though that we are what is doing the damage to the planet, and it's not some natural cycle. but, for the repair to work, we had to stop doing the damage.

Partial Post: Please Login or Register to read the full post.