59 replies to this topic

[rxter]

So now I am showing my real stripes - this is the stuff that I worry about. Roll bars - who needs them? LSD - what's that? Price and value - I'm all over it. Did some noodling this afternoon and thought I would share. Data from today's Autotrader.

 Miles_and_Price_All.jpg   40.45KB   6 downloads

 Miles_and_Price_Coupe.jpg   40.41KB   4 downloads

 Miles_and_Price.jpg   39.34KB   1 downloads

Analysis?

Price drops rapidly with increasing miles from a high of about $1000 per 1000 miles driven, to a little over $100 per 1000 miles. Looks like it slows down at about 100K miles and $10 - $12 K. For comparison a decent 944 with 100K appears to be around $8K (unless your name is Roland and you scare the crap out of the seller

Dealers do not list higher than Privateers, as I had pondered in a distant post. In this sample dealers were listing cars with a low of 30K, a high of 143K, and an average of 79K miles. Privateers 26K, 1o9K, ave = 81K. Prices per miles driven were within 3% ($278 dealer vs $288 privateer).

If you think purely about $ per miles when you are done with the car, the story gets interesting. Daily drivers pay attention. If we assume that each car has a life of 200K miles, and that maintenance will be the same for each car, then the higher mileage cars will not be the best value. In this sample one car with over 100K miles on it would actually cost more than one with under 30. This basically means that someone else has driven most of the value out of the car and is asking you to make him whole. Of course, the higher mileage cars also typically need some sorting out, which hurts even more.

There's a ton more to do with this data if you are numbers wacko like me, but I know that some of us have to work for a living, so I'll leave it here.

[TomS2]

I love crunching numbers. I agree that the lower mileage cars are 'cheaper'. i wonder how much LSD is worth, M030, and year.

I dont put much value in year, figure LSD is about 1500, and M030 1500.

I would like to know what the actual transaction price is relative to the asking price.

The red 70k mile car in arizona went up something like 1500 when the private owner let the shop sell it.

[PorscheDude]

Tom,
Glad you made it over.

[RPM]

Great data.

Important perhaps that these are asking prices, as opposed to actual sale prices. Anderson's Excellence values are based on actual reported sales. But I always wonder how large his sample is. I am surprised that you found 30+ cars on AutoTrader at the same time.

The devil is always in the analysis. It would be very hard to figure the miles/value equation for a car that an owner has driven for a few years. So much would depend on investment over initial purchase.

Thanks for the work.

[biotechee]

Definitely excellent data.

Can you post the line equation for each so one could determine the valve of a different car given the mileage?

I also agree it is important to note that these are asking prices. And, given options, color, etc., the final sale price will most likely be different. Nonetheless, this is an excellent starting point for someone considering selling their car.

Thanks!

[flash]

fun stuff

can you factor in region? california cars tend to sell for more than north east coast cars, etc (as much as 3k on a cab)

[jeff968]

Interesting, of course, these are asking prices, what they sell for can be something completly different. For comparision, I can tell you of three cabs that sold last year.

92 cab, 54K miles, asking $18.5K, sold for $17K
92 cab, 41K miles, asking $23K, sold for $18.3K
95 cab, 30K miles, asking $23.5K, sold for $20K

Jeff

[flash]

and i can tell you of another - 94 cab 14k miles, asked and sold for $19k

[TomS2]

so what would you guesstimate the premium is for a cab over a coupe, and how much for LSD.

other than M030 i dont think there is an option that will command a premium, and am not sure LSD commands $$ in the market since there are a lot more LSD 968s percentage wise than 944s.



and thanks Pat.

[rxter]

This data set is too small to get at the price of a specific option like LSD or M030. Too much variability (mileage, condition, location, etc) for any sort of robust multi-variate analysis on a sample of 37 cars.

We do have enough cars to to a half arsed coupe-cab comparo. Averages below


Coupe $17, 800 at 67,100 miles - High $29,000 at 29,000 miles
Cab $16,400 at 86,900 miles - High $24,000 at 54,000 miles (both high numbers are purple I believe - PORSCHE's coupe and the lambo-door job in LA)

Looks like the premium for a cab is gone. Not surprising really. The original premium was about $5K so you would expect depreciation to eat that up pretty fast. Also, a 15-year old top might just need to be replaced. I know I paid a bit more for my cab than "market" primarily because the top looks new and I wouldn't have to hassle with it.

biotechee you can estimate the starting point by using the graphs. These are not linear functions (actually just using the logrithmic function in excel cause it seems to fit pretty well) and I don't have access to the function itself.

flash I did not capture region. I know that I would pay more for a CA car if it were a Toyota DD. In the case of this car there seems to be very little rust due to the construction, and it seems that those still around were reasonably well cared for, even if they are higher mileage. I've seen (4) 968s and (1) 944 at their place of residence and they were all in garages Anecdotally I have not seen a significant diff in cars from the SW vs Ohio, for example.

[flash]

actually we see a LOT of corrosion from north east cars, so much so that as far as i know all of the firewall failures have been from there - engine bays show it the most - west coast engine bays wax up nicely, but east coast ones have pitted and corroded valve covers and vanity covers and such

i don't think the cab premium has disappeared, but i do agree that it has leveled out on higher mileage cars - the low mileage examples have actually gone up relative the to the rest of the market

but then, when people like myself snatch up extremely low mileage cabs for next to nothing, it certainly doesn't help the curve

[TomS2]

rxter i know the data on the graph is too small, and is asking price. i was wondering what people involved in the 968 arena think.

I was talking with winslow/horsepower farm with a bunch of other NY area R.L.ers about five years ago, and he threw out $1000. He flat out said he would add $1000 for a LSD. is that gospel? no, but i think it pretty much sums up the premium on a 951 mainly because so many 951s are modded.

i dont think it is as much for a 944NA because of the power limitations of the R&P, and lack of choices for more power.

The main reason I am looking at a 968 is because of the LSD. I want one in my S2, and if i sell the car and add the $2500 to what i get i am in 968 with LSD territory.

I think i know what my car is worth, know there is no market for my car, and no market for the 968s on autotrader. I dont want to insult the seller, but think my realistic offer will insult him. just like the guy on ebay with the $20k 968 that has cross drilled rotors. he thinks the cross drilled rotors and paragon konis make the car M030. If i get 10 for my S2 I am supposed to be happy. but my 10 means his 968 isnt worth near the 20 he wants. add in shipping to get a car 1200 miles to where i am now, and suddenly a clean 968 barely hits the teens IMO. Am I that far off?

[bob blackwell]

No, unfortunately, I think you are not far off at all. The rapid depreciation of the Boxster has really hurt our cars as well. I had a 1989 944S2 with LSD and M030 suspension and I loved it. Good luck, Bob Blackwell.

[SpeedRacer64]

It would seem the common principles of economics with respect to scarcity do not apply here. Not many 968 built and butt load of boxers....doesn’t make sense.

[TomS2]

It would seem the common principles of economics with respect to scarcity do not apply here. Not many 968 built and butt load of boxers....doesn’t make sense.

too many other choices and the car is not considered a 'collectible'. i can get a nice near new boxster, Z, good used C5, etc. for mid teens or a 968 that may have a dash crack, needs constant upkeep of belts, has uber expensive parts, mid 70s technology....

then there is shipping. C5s and Zs are all around me. there is a beautiful C6 on a BMW dealers lot three miles from my house. How low of an interest rate can i get from him vs. my home equity line or wherever i get the $ from, add the cost to get it to me here in the heart of the country, and what i want to offer for one 1200 miles away or two days off from work away and my price drops. moreover, the interest in what i want to sell is not there either, so i say to myself my car and how much. figure a number add 2k for fire sale for my car, then say why am i adding that much $.

Edited by TomS2, 13 July 2008 - 02:00 PM.

[rxter]

too many other choices and the car is not considered a 'collectible'. i can get a nice near new boxster, Z, good used C5, etc. for mid teens or a 968 that may have a dash crack, needs constant upkeep of belts, has uber expensive parts, mid 70s technology....

then there is shipping. C5s and Zs are all around me. there is a beautiful C6 on a BMW dealers lot three miles from my house. How low of an interest rate can i get from him vs. my home equity line or wherever i get the $ from, add the cost to get it to me here in the heart of the country, and what i want to offer for one 1200 miles away or two days off from work away and my price drops. moreover, the interest in what i want to sell is not there either, so i say to myself my car and how much. figure a number add 2k for fire sale for my car, then say why am i adding that much $.

If you are shopping generally for a used sports car, and economics are of prime importance to you, then of course there are many good choices. As this is forum is comprised primarily of pretty avid, if not so bright, 968 fans, I would not expect too much sympathy for your concerns stated above. I think I can speak for many who also saw and drove boxters, Z4s, 300Z's, the list goes on, and purchased a used, dash-cracked, oil leaking, soggy bushing, wreck of a 968 because is speaks to us in ways that other cars simply don't.

[TomS2]

If you are shopping generally for a used sports car, and economics are of prime importance to you, then of course there are many good choices. As this is forum is comprised primarily of pretty avid, if not so bright, 968 fans, I would not expect too much sympathy for your concerns stated above. I think I can speak for many who also saw and drove boxters, Z4s, 300Z's, the list goes on, and purchased a used, dash-cracked, oil leaking, soggy bushing, wreck of a 968 because is speaks to us in ways that other cars simply don't.

I am on my fifth 944 which is my third S2. I was just pointing out the economics that drive the other 99.44 of the population, an hence the lower resale values. Things we all thought about, then made the - irrational decision.

There are about 60 968s on cars and autotrader right now. The red M030 wanna be with a porsche fanatic for an owner that doesnt know squat about his car for sale in arizona has been there for two months, same for the 91k red one in illinois for sale by the guy with too many porsches that told me three times about the options his car has which are all starndard items, the amazon green one with scratches on the rockers courtesy of the doctors son in law in washington which seems legit and a good car at a fair asking price, the white one with the boom box in the hatch that was an arizona car, now an ohio car, the black low miles one in ohio, and a few others.

i like the amazon green car but no LSD so no OK from she who must be obeyed. the white one in ohio seems interesting but with a baby on the way the seller didnt seem agressive enough in answering my questions.

I know what I want, and I know I wont have too much competition to get it.

at the same time, i know i am going to take a bath on my S2 to get a 968.

Edited by TomS2, 14 July 2008 - 05:30 PM.

[Larry Currie]

Black Book says mileage should not be a factor for a restored collectible.

[TomS2]

and according to jim shrager when i spoke with him five years ago mileage doesnt affect teh value of a porsche. he said the value of a porsche is based more on the work done than the mileage. he said porsches and hondas are like that while a chevy is deemed obsolete after a certain mileage.

basically a restored say 110k mile car will have a new clutch, a new this a new that, freshened tranny, freshened motor blah blah. while a 80k mile car is just waiting for the freshening at say 100k miles. so the 110k car for the same price is actuall a cheaper car in teh long run.

[rxter]

Good point. I waffled a bit between a couple of cars with high 60s mileage and high 80's. I chose the high 80's because the clutch hydraulics and hardware had been replaced at 75, and cam guides also about 75, and it had a new top. The high 60's car, while fresher in some ways, was going to need all of that stuff in the next 18 months. And, I paid a bit less for the higher mileage car.


Agree that there is not a huge market for this car, but the really good ones do seem to go fast, so there must be some quiet stalkers out there, waiting for the right car.

Now if I could only interest them in a slightly used Honda van...