[Rap]

Since I suspect we have a range of members involved in a wide range of business's and occupations, I throw this question out for advice, comment or even ridicule. Anyone out there thinking of selling all your tax deferred investments due to the uncertainty of what is happening in DC?

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[tamathumper]

Not all of them, but I've seriously slowed my contributions into institutionally-held deferred retirement accounts that are, in my opinion, likely to be forced to include a portion of their holdings in treasuries (should things continue the way they've been going). I continue to manage those regular and tax-deferred accounts that are in my own possession (roll-overs and Roths), and I continue to consider physical possession of precious metals an important part of a balanced portfolio. This includes gold, silver, and apparently just enough tinfoil to make a fetching hat (some folks seem to believe that any form of preparedness is akin to wild-eyed zealotry).

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[Cloud9...68]

Nah. This is going to turn out to be a gigantic nothing-burger. A deal will be struck, possibly in the 11th hour, Wall Street will rejoice, the market will soar (temporarily, at least), and then it will be back to business as usual. I think it is a HUGE mistake to make big financial moves based on speculation as to the outcome of events in the news, as scary as they may sound. Anybody remember Y2K?

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[tamathumper]

My concern is not based on the contemporary near-term noise around the debt ceiling debate, that will be over, as you say, when the deal is struck or the Fed caves and instantiates QE3.

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[Rap]

Let's suppose all that is true , a deal is struck. How about a market correction prior to that which eliminates 30 percent. Even if it corrects, as it did in 09, did you recover that which was lost? I think not too many of us did. If you did a year or two went by. So you lost the gain in that time period. That is my concern and I am not a chicken little!

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[Cloud9...68]

Timing the market is always a very tricky thing. Personally, I wouldn't dare try such a thing. I've always just invested steadily through all times, good and bad, and yes, I'm WAY up from even the peak of July of 2007, when the DOW was around 14,500.



The problem is that the market is influenced by a multitude of factors, and it's too easy to get distracted by the issue(s) of the day, or by your favorite pundit's pet indicator. I just ignore all the crap, assume that fundamentally the American economy will in the long run always find a way to muddle through, and keep plugging away. It's worked so for...

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[Rap]

Agreed, I also have just been a steady Eddie because historically this has been sound. Although I am a student of history, one can't forget or overlook similarities. 2011 is much different than 2007 08. Read a fellow by the name of Harvey Dent and Tama's metal suggestion sounds even better! Timing is a waste I agree. Of course this time there is a specific time. I am just trying to get a sense of what other intelligent people who work hard to earn and save think.

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[tamathumper]

@Rap - A correction has been nigh for some time based on the S&P action this spring in order to bleed off greed and complacency - but the other way to do that is to consolidate and the S&P appears to be doing just that on the high side of its range, albeit on weak legs. While I don't time the market with hard entry and exit points, I do move to cash when I consider it prudent (in the face of the silver parabola this spring, for instance) and I "layer in and out" to avoid relative over- and under-sold conditions, bearing in mind that cash is still a position. I don't like the smell of the consolidation so far, but it will be fun to see what random global event the media tries to ascribe to the market action. Will it be concerns over sovereign debt, the U.S. rating watch from Fitch, the "Greece fire" (again), or..."

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[Cloud9...68]

"Of course this time there is a specific time"



Even when a specific event is due to occur at a specific time, things get muddled in a hurry, because you have all kinds of people (analysts, trend followers, lemmings, "chasers", contrarians, counter-contrarians, people trying to figure out what the contra-counter-contrarians, might do if the contrarians blink, etc. etc. ad nauseum) staring at the upcoming event, trying to outsmart (or in the case of the chasers, "out-dumb") each other. This causes the "event" to usually lose all semblance of clarity, making it virtually impossible to make an investment decision based on the actual event. There are rare exceptions, but again, my strong advice would be to ignore the debt ceiling nonsense, and treat August 2 like any other day.

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[Rap]

So your response is not to sell tax deferred and see what happens for say August? Mind you this goes against all I know and believe in.

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[Cloud9...68]

I'm just a humble engineer, not a financial whiz of any kind, so my "advice" plus a few bucks will get you a cup of coffee, but imho, selling a bunch of securities, tax deferred or no, in anticipation of a load of political grandstanding that is this August 2 nonsense, is borderline insane (nothing personal ).

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[Rap]

Non taken. I asked the question to solicit advice. Course although I don't know you the humble might be a stretch! How many 968 owners are engineers? Much of what I read at this stage is somewhat beyond my specific comprehension. Or is it engineer speak!!! Lol

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[flash]

let it burn!



here's a question for you: what happens if the US defaults? does china come in and kick us out?



we have to stop borrowing money and start living within our means - either taxes need to go WAY up if we want the things we are used to the government providing, or we privatize those things, or we go without - it's simple math

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[Cloud9...68]

"we have to stop borrowing money and start living within our means - either taxes need to go WAY up if we want the things we are used to the government providing, or we privatize those things, or we go without - it's simple math"





Couldn't agree more. Let's hope this brinksmanship will in some way put us on the right path.

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[Rap]

Please, do you think these whores in washington deserve having what they are not doing called brinkmanship? Closer to CYA so as not to be responsible for anything which might affect their reelection chances. If your output exceeds your intake, your upkeep will be your downfall. My parents drilled that into me, continue to in fact. Course when your not spending your own money and are generally able to lie(vote) your way out of specific responsibility, should we really be surprised at what we have wrought? I agree with Bob, it will cost a lot more(taxes) or we will do without that which we have come to expect. Perhaps privatization is the salve which can create more jobs!

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[Cloud9...68]

By brinksmanship, I just meant they're tendency to push critical deals like this one off to the last possible moment.



One positive aspect I see in all this is that our representatives, for the first time in my lifetime, are at least giving lip service to the need to get their budgeting under some semblance of control. I remember during the recent debate over intervention into the Libyan uprising, they were actually discussing the cost of each bomb. If only they had had a similar discussion before that idiotic invasion of Iraq in 2003!

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[Rap]

Yes I know it was a gentle bust. But they are only talking about it because of a desperation arising from the need to convince people they are ha ha serious this time. They continue to kick the important cans down the road in the hope that the coming election will make it a talking point for those running. Notice talking? An isn't Michelle just a babe?

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[tamathumper]

So long as you have something you've worked or risked for, and so long as others want it without working for it, you will have those people in Washington.



They are placed there quite on purpose to do a specific job, and that's to take what you've got and re-distribute it to those other people.



As of about 2010, there are more of "them" than there are of "you". You will never be able to "out vote" them now that the coin has flipped.



Uruguay is lookin' like a good retirement destination...

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[Cloud9...68]

Just heard of a brilliant idea by none other than Warren Buffett (someone I would dearly love to call "Uncle Warren" <img src="/forum/images/smilies/968/biggrin.gif" class="smilie" alt="" /> ). He suggests passing a law stating that any year the annual deficit exceeds 3% of GDP (why not $1?), all member of congress are automatically ineligible for re-election. Of course such a law is about as likely as a Prius plastered with right-wing bumper stickers (or, for equal time, a Hummer covered with Greenpeace stickers), but it would automatically eliminate one of the inherent flaws of our representative system of government - the pariochialism associated with enhancing ones chances of reelection. Anybody seee a downside with this idea? Sounds like sheer brilliance to me...

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[ds968]

August 2nd is gone followed by an even uglier 3rd and 4th. I'm guessing since July 1st I lost about eight 968 coupes worth ( yes, the 968 market value is my "currency benchmark" for every comparable purpose <img src="/forum/images/smilies/968/rolleyes.gif" class="smilie" alt="" /> ) in our 401k's value, but everyone tells me " it's ok 'cause it's only on paper " <img src="/forum/images/smilies/968/dry.gif" class="smilie" alt="" /> right ?! Well, no..because I could have cashed that amount out into real money, pay the hefty tax penalty and still buy at least four or five 968s.



Damn, all those gloom and doom economists predictions I used to dismiss as alarmist nonsense may not be too far off their mark.

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